(Solar Evolution and Extrema)
Goals and Objectives:
1) Reproduce magnetic activity as observed in the Sunspot and cosmogenic records in dynamo simulations,
2) Amalgamate the best current models and observations for solar spectral and wind output over the Earth's history, and
3) Determine the size and expected frequency of extreme solar events such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
1) Are we at the verge of a new grand minimum? If not, what is the expectation for cycle 25?
2) Does our current best understanding of the evolution of solar irradiance and mass loss resolve the "Faint Young Sun" problem? What are the alternative solutions?
3) For the next few decades, what can we expect in terms of extreme solar flares and storms, and also absence of activity? Another Carrington event? What is the largest solar eruption/flare possible? What is the expectation for periods with absence of activity?
4) How does the geospace system respond to extreme events?
Data/Theory Model: Dynamo models, stellar evolution calculations including mass loss and rotation, early solar wind simulations, observations of solar–type stars, observations of very large events on stars, statistical analysis of event distributions.
1) Dynamo Models for the near future, including a prediction for cycle 25, or for an upcoming grand minimum,
2) A timeline of solar activity –– spectral radiation, wind, CMEs –– from the Earth's formation up to the present,
3) A frequency distribution and near term likelihood prediction of extreme events.
Co-leaders: Piet Martens (USA), Vladimir Obridko (Russia), Dibyendu Nandi (India)